Реферат: Может ли Интернет нанести вред демократии?

Этот перевод – часть диплома, успешно защищенного в СПбГТУв 2002г.

Переводчик:George

<span Arial",«sans-serif»;mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»">

<span Arial",«sans-serif»;mso-bidi-font-family: «Times New Roman»">Присылайте ваши

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">thanx’<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»">ы, критику и варианты перевода: <span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US"><span Times New Roman",«serif»;mso-ansi-language:RU;font-weight:normal;font-style: normal">stead@nwgsm.ru<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">

<span Arial",«sans-serif»;mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»; mso-ansi-language:EN-US"> 

<span Arial",«sans-serif»;mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»; mso-ansi-language:EN-US"> 

<span Arial",«sans-serif»;mso-bidi-font-family: «Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">                                                           

<span Arial",«sans-serif»;mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»; mso-ansi-language:EN-US">

<span Arial",«sans-serif»;mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»; mso-ansi-language:EN-US">Will the Internet Be Bad for Democracy?

<span Arial",«sans-serif»;mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»; mso-ansi-language:EN-US">

<span Arial",«sans-serif»;mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»; mso-ansi-language:EN-US"> 

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">Eli M. Noam

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US"> 

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">Professor and Financeand Economics

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">Director,Columbia Institute for Tele-Information

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">Graduate Schoolof Business, Columbia University

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US"> 

<span Arial",«sans-serif»;mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»; mso-ansi-language:EN-US">Presented at the

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">Heinz NixdorfComputer Museum Forum

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US"> 

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">Paderborn,Germany

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">May 1999  

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-fareast-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»; mso-ansi-language:EN-US;mso-fareast-language:EN-US;mso-bidi-language:AR-SA; layout-grid-mode:line">

<span Arial",«sans-serif»;mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»; mso-ansi-language:EN-US">When the media history of the 20th Centurywill be written, the Internet will be seen as its majorcontribution.  Television, telephone, andcomputers will be viewed as its early precursors, merging and converging intothe new medium just as radio and film did into TV. The Internet’s impact onculture, business, and politics will be vast, for sure.  Where will it take us?  To answer that question is difficult, becausethe Internet is not simply a set of interconnecting links and protocolsconnecting packet switched networks,but it is also a construct of imagination, an inkblot test into which everybodyprojects their desires, fears and phantasies.

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US"> 

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">Some seeenlightenment and education.  Others seepornography and gambling.  Some seesharing and collaboration; others see e-commerce and profits. Controversiesabound on most aspects of the Internet. Yet when it comes to its impact on democracy process, the answer seemsunanimous.<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-fareast-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»; mso-ansi-language:EN-US;mso-fareast-language:RU;mso-bidi-language:AR-SA">[1]

[1]  The Internet is good for democracy.  It creates digital citizens (Wired 1997)active in the vibrant teledemocracy (Etzioni, 1997) of the Electronic Republic(Grossman 1995) in the Digital Nation (Katz 1992).  Is there no other side to this question?  Is the answer so positively positive?  

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US"> 

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">The reasons whythe Internet is supposed to strengthen democracy include the following. 

<span Arial",«sans-serif»;mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language: EN-US"> 

<span Arial",«sans-serif»;mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»; mso-ansi-language:EN-US">1.

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">     <span Arial",«sans-serif»;mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»; mso-ansi-language:EN-US">The Internet lowers the entry barriers to politicalparticipation.

<span Arial",«sans-serif»;mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»; mso-ansi-language:EN-US">2.

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">     <span Arial",«sans-serif»;mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»; mso-ansi-language:EN-US">It strengthens political dialogue.

<span Arial",«sans-serif»;mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»; mso-ansi-language:EN-US">3.

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">     <span Arial",«sans-serif»;mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»; mso-ansi-language:EN-US">It creates community.

<span Arial",«sans-serif»;mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»; mso-ansi-language:EN-US">4.

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">     <span Arial",«sans-serif»;mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»; mso-ansi-language:EN-US">It cannot be controlled by government.

<span Arial",«sans-serif»;mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»; mso-ansi-language:EN-US">5.

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">     <span Arial",«sans-serif»;mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»; mso-ansi-language:EN-US">It increases voting participation.

<span Arial",«sans-serif»;mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»; mso-ansi-language:EN-US">6.

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">     <span Arial",«sans-serif»;mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»; mso-ansi-language:EN-US">It permitscloser communication with officials.

<span Arial",«sans-serif»;mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»; mso-ansi-language:EN-US">7.

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">     <span Arial",«sans-serif»;mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»; mso-ansi-language:EN-US">It spreads democracy world-wide.

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US"> 

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">Each of thepropositions in this utopian populist, view, which might be called isquestionable.  But they are firmly heldby the Internet founder generation, by the industry that now operates themedium, by academics from Negroponte (1995) to Dahl (1989), by gushy newsmedia, and by a cross-party set of politicians who wish to claim the future,from Gore to Gingrich, from Bangemann to Blair. 

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US"> 

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">I will argue,in contrast, that the Internet, far from helping democracy, is a threat to it.And I am taking this view as an enthusiast, not a critic.  But precisely because the Internet ispowerful and revolutionary, it also affects, and even destroys, all traditionalinstitutions--including--democracy.  Todeny this potential is to invite a backlash when the ignored problemseventually emerge.<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-fareast-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»; mso-ansi-language:EN-US;mso-fareast-language:RU;mso-bidi-language:AR-SA">[2]

[2]

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US"> 

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">My perspectiveis different from the neo-Marxist arguments about big business controllingeverything; from neo-Luddite views that low-tech is beautiful; and fromreformist fears that a politically disenfranchised digital underclass willemerge.  The latter, in particular, hasbeen a frequent perspective.  Yet, thegood news is that the present income-based gap in Internet usage will declinein developed societies.  Processing andtransmission becomes cheap, and will be anywhere, affordably.  Transmission will be cheap, and connect us toanywhere, affordably.  And basicequipment will almost be given away in return for long-term contracts andadvertising exposure.

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US"> 

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">That is whywhat we now call basic Internet connectivity will not be a problem.  Internet connectivity will be near 100% ofthe households and offices, like electricity, because the Internet will havebeen liberated from the terror of the PC as its gateway, the mostconsumer-unfriendly consumer product ever built since the unicycle. 

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US"> 

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">Already, morethan half of communications traffic is data rather than voice, which means thatit involves fast machines rather than slow people.  These machines will be everywhere.  Cars will be chatting with highways.  Suitcases will complain to airlines.  Electronic books will download frompublishers.  Front doors will check inwith police departments.  Pacemakers willtalk to hospitals.  Television sets willconnect to video servers.

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US"> 

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">For thatreason, my skepticism about the Internet as a pro-democracy force is not basedon its uneven distribution.  It is moresystemic.  The problem is that mostanalysts commit a so-called error of composition.  That is, they confuse micro behavior withmacro results.  They think that ifsomething is helpful to an individual, it is also helpful to society at large,when everybody uses it.

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US"> 

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">Suppose wewould have asked, a century ago, whether the automobile would reducepollution.  The answer would have beeneasy and positive: no horses, no waste on the roads, no smell, no use ofagricultural land to grow oats.  But wenow recognize that in the aggregate, mass motorization has been bad for theenvironment.  It created emissions,dispersed the population, and put more demand on land.

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US"> 

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">The seconderror is that of inference.  Just becausethe Internet is good for democracy in places like North Korea, Iran, or Sudandoes not mean that it is better for Germany, Denmark, or the UnitedStates.  Just because three TV channelsoffer more diversity of information than one does not mean that 30,000 arebetter than 300. 

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US"> 

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">So here areseveral reasons why the Internet will not be good for democracy, correspondingto the pro-democracy arguments described above.

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US"> 

<span Arial",«sans-serif»;mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»; mso-ansi-language:EN-US">

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">        <span Arial",«sans-serif»;mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language: EN-US">The Internet Will Make Politics More Expensive and Raise Entry Barriers

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US"> 

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">The hope hasbeen that online public space will be an electronic version of a New England orSwiss town meeting, open and ongoing. The Internet would permit easy and cheap political participation andpolitical campaigns.  But is that true?

<span Arial",«sans-serif»;mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language: EN-US"> 

<span Arial",«sans-serif»;mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language: EN-US">Easy entry exists indeed for an Internet based on narrowbandtransmission, which is largely text-based. But the emerging broadband Internet will permit fancy video andmultimedia messages and information resources. Inevitably, audience expectations will rise. When everyone can speak,who will be listened to?  If the historyof mass media means anything, it will not be everyone. It cannot beeveryone.  Nor will the wisest or thosewith the most compelling case or cause be heard, but the best produced, theslickest, and the best promoted.  Andthat is expensive.

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US"> 

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">Secondly,because of the increasing glut and clutter of information, those with messageswill have to devise strategies to draw attention.  Political attention, just like commercialone, will have to be created.  Ideology,self-interest, and public spirit are some factors.  But in many cases, attention needs to bebought, by providing entertainment, gifts, games, lotteries, coupons, etc,  That, too, is expensive.  The basic cost of information is rarely theproblem in politics; it’s the packaging. It is not difficult or expensive to produce and distribute handbills orto make phone calls, or to speak at public events.  But it is costly to communicate to vastaudiences in an effective way, because that requires large advertising and PRbudgets.

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US"> 

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">Thirdly,effective politics on the Internet will require elaborate and costly datacollection.  The reason is that Internetmedia operate differently from traditional mass media.  They will not broadcast to all but instead tospecifically targeted individuals. Instead of the broad stroke of political TV messages, “netcasted”politics will be customized to be most effective.  This requires extensive information aboutindividuals’ interests and preferences. Data banks then become a key to political effectiveness.  Who would own and operate them?  In some cases the political parties.  But they could not maintain control over thedata banks where a primary exist that is open to many candidates.  There is also a privacy problem, whensemi-official political parties store information about the views, fears, andhabits of millions of individuals.  Forboth of those reasons the ability of parties to collect such data will belimited.

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US"> 

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">Other politicaldata banks will be operated by advocacy and interest groups.  They would then donate to candidate’s datainstead of money.  The importance of suchdata banks would further weaken campaign finance laws and further strengtheninterest group pluralism over traditional political parties.

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US"> 

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">But inparticular, political data banks will maintained through what is now known aspolitical consultants.  They willestablish permanent and proprietary permanent data banks and become stillbigger players in the political environment and operate increasingly asideology-free for –profit consultancies.

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US"> 

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">Even if the useof the Internet makes some political activity cheaper, it does so for everyone,which means that all organization will increase their activities rather thanspend less on them.<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-fareast-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»; mso-ansi-language:EN-US;mso-fareast-language:RU;mso-bidi-language:AR-SA">[3]

[1]If some aspects of campaigning become cheaper, they would not usually spendless, but instead do more.

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US"> 

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">Thus, anyeffectiveness of early adopters will soon be matched by their rivals and willsimply lead to an accelerated, expensive, and mutually canceling politicalarms-race of investment in action techniques and new--media marketingtechnologies. 

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US"> 

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">The early usersof the Internet experienced a gain in their effectiveness, and now theyincorrectly extrapolate this to society at large.  While such gain is trumpeted as theempowerment of the individual over Big Government and Big Business, much of ithas simply been a relative strengthening of individuals and groups with computerand online skills (who usually have significantly about-average income andeducation) and a relative weakening of those without such resources.  Government did not become more responsive dueto online users; it just became more responsive to them.

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US"> 

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">•

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">                    <span Arial",«sans-serif»;mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language: EN-US">The Internet will make reasoned and political dialog more difficult.

<span Arial",«sans-serif»;mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»; mso-ansi-language:EN-US"> 

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">True, theInternet is a more active and interactive medium than TV.  But is its use in politics a promise or areality?

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US"> 

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">Just becausethe quantity of information increase does not mean that its quality rises.  To the contrary.  As the Internet leads to more informationclutter, it will become necessary for any message to get louder.  Political information becomes distorted,shrill, and simplistic.

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US"> 

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">One of thecharacteristics of the Internet is disintermediation, the Internet is inbusiness as well as in politics.  Inpolitics, it leads to the decline of traditional news media and their screeningtechniques.  The acceleration of the newscycle by necessity leads to less careful checking, while competition leads tomore sensationalism.  Issues getattention if they are visually arresting and easily understood.  This leads to media events, to the 15 min offame, to the sound bite, to infotainment. The Internet also permits anonymity, which leads to the creation of, andto last minute political ambush.  TheInternet lends itself to dirty politics more than the more accountable TV.

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US"> 

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">While theself-image of the tolerant digital citizen persists, an empirical study of thecontent of several political usenet groups found much intolerant behavior:domineering by a few; rude “flaming”; and reliance on unsupportedassertions.  (Davis, 1999)  Another investigation finds no evidence thatcomputer-mediated communication is necessarily democratic or participatory(Streck, 1998).

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US"> 

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">•

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">                    <span Arial",«sans-serif»;mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language: EN-US">The Internet disconnects as much as it connects

<span Arial",«sans-serif»;mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»; mso-ansi-language:EN-US"> 

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">Democracy hashistorically been based on community. Traditionally, such communities were territorial — electoral districts,states, and towns.  Community, tocommunicate — the terms are related: community is shaped by the ability of itsmembers to communicate with each other. If the underlying communications system changes, the communities areaffected.  As one connects in new ways,one also disconnects the old ways. As the Internet links with new and far-awaypeople, it also reduces relations with neighbors and neighborhoods. 

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US"> 

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">The long-termimpact of cheap and convenient communications is a further geographic dispersalof the population, and thus greater physical isolation.  At the same time, the enormous increase inthe number of information channels leads to an individualization of mass media,and to fragmentation.  Suddenly, criticsof the “lowest common denominator” programming, of TV now get nostalgic for the“electronic hearth” around which society huddled.  They discovered the integrative role of massmedia.

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US"> 

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">On the otherhand, the Internet also creates electronically linked new types ofcommunity.  But these are different fromtraditional communities.  They have lessof the averaging that characterizes physical communities–-throwing together thebutcher, the baker, the candlestick maker. Instead, these new communities are more stratified along some commondimension, such as business, politics, or hobbies.  These groups will therefore tend to be issue- driven, more narrow, more narrow-minded, and sometimes more extreme, aslike-minded people reinforce each other’s views.

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US"> 

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">Furthermore,many of these communities will be owned by someone.  They are like a shopping mall, a gatedcommunity, with private rights to expel, to promote, and to censor.  The creation of community has been perhapsthe main assets of Internet portals such as AOL.  It is unlikely that they will dilute the valueof these assets by relinquishing control.

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US"> 

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">If it is easyto join such virtual communities, it also becomes easy to leave, in a civicsense, one’s physical community. Community becomes a browning experience.

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US"> 

<span Arial",«sans-serif»;mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»; mso-ansi-language:EN-US">•

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">                    <span Arial",«sans-serif»;mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language: EN-US">Information does not necessarily weaken the state.<span Arial",«sans-serif»;mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»; mso-ansi-language:EN-US">

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US"> 

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">Can Internetreduce totalitarianism? Of course. Tyranny and mind control becomes harder. But Internet romantics tend to underestimate the ability of governmentsto control the Internet, to restrict it, and to indeed use it as an instrumentof surveillance.  How quickly weforget.  Only a few years ago, the imageof information technology was Big Brother and mind control.  That was extreme, of course, but thesurveillance potential clearly exists. Cookies can monitor usage. Wireless applications create locational fixes.  Identification requirements permit thecreation of composites of peoples’ public and private activities and interests.  Newsgroups can (and are) monitored by thosewith stakes in an issue.

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US"> 

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">A free accessto information is helpful to democracy. But the value of information to democracy tends to get overblown.  It may be a necessary condition, but not asufficient one.

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">Civil warsituations are not typically based on a lack of information.  Yet there is an undying belief that if people“only knew”, eg. by logging online, they would become more tolerant of eachother.  That is wishful and optimistichope, but is it based on history? Hitler came to power in a republic wherepolitical information and communication were plentiful.

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US"> 

<span Arial",«sans-serif»;mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»; mso-ansi-language:EN-US">Democracy requires stability, and stability requires abit of inertia.  The most stabledemocracies are characterized by a certain slowness of change.  Examples are Switzerland and England.  The US operates on the basis of a 210-yearold Constitution. Hence the acceleration of politics made the Internet is atwo-edged sword.

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US"> 

<span Arial",«sans-serif»;mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»; mso-ansi-language:EN-US">The Internet and its tools accelerate informationflows, no question about it. But same tools are also available to any othergroup, party, and coalition.  Theirequilibrium does not change, except temporarily in favor of earlyadopters.  All it may accomplish in theaggregate is a more hectic rather than a more thoughtful process.

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US"> 

<span Arial",«sans-serif»;mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»; mso-ansi-language:EN-US">•

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">                    <span Arial",«sans-serif»;mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language: EN-US">Electronic voting does not strengthen democracy<span Arial",«sans-serif»;mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»; mso-ansi-language:EN-US">

<span Arial",«sans-serif»;mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»; mso-ansi-language:EN-US"> 

<span Arial",«sans-serif»;mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»; mso-ansi-language:EN-US">The Internet enables electronic voting and hence mayincrease voter turnout.  But it alsochanges democracy from a representative model to one of direct democracy. 

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US"> 

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">Directdemocracy puts a premium on resources of mobilization, favoring money andorganization.  It disintermediateselected representatives.  It favorssensationalized issues over “boring” ones. Almost by definition, it limits the ability to make unpopulardecisions.  It makes harder the buildingof political coalition (Noam, 1980, 1981). The arguments against direct democracy were made perhaps most eloquentlyin the classic arguments for the adoption of the US Constitution, by JamesMadison in the Federalist Papers #10.

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US"> 

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">Electronicvoting is not simply the same as traditional voting without the inconvenienceof waiting in line.  When voting becomeslike channel clicking on remote, it is left with little of the civic engagementof voting.  When voting becomesindistinguishable from a poll, polling and voting merge.  With the greater ease and anonymity ofvoting, a market for votes is unavoidable. Participation declines if people know the expected result too early, orwhere the legitimacy of the entire election is in question.

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US"> 

<span Arial",«sans-serif»;mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»; mso-ansi-language:EN-US">

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">        <span Arial",«sans-serif»;mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language: EN-US">Direct access to public officials will be phony

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US"> 

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">In 1997, Wiredmagazine and Merrill Lynch commissioned a study of the political attitudes ofthe  “digital connected”.  The results showed them more participatory,more patriotic, more pro-diversity, and more voting-active.  They were religious (56% say they praydaily); pro-death penalty (3/4); pro-Marijuana legalization (71%); pro-market(%) and pro-democracy (57%).  But arethey outliers or the pioneers of a new model? At the time of the survey (1997) the digitally connected counted for 9%of the population; they were better educated, richer (82% owned securities);whites; younger; and more Republican than the population as a whole.  In the Wired/Merrill Lynch survey, none ofthe demographic variables were corrected for. Other studies do so, and reach far less enthusiastic results. 

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US"> 

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">One study ofthe political engagement of Internet users finds that they are only slightlyless likely to vote, and are more likely to contact elected officials.  The Internet is thus a substitute for suchcontacts, not their generator. Furthermore, only weak causality is found.  (Bimber 1998)

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">Another surveyfinds that Internet users access political information roughly in the sameproportions as users of other media, about 5% of their overall informationusage (Pew, 1998).  Another study findsthat users of the Internet for political purposes tend to alreadyinvolved.  Thus, the Internet reinforcespolitical activity rather than mobilizes new one (Norris, Pippa, 1999)

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US"> 

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">Yes, anybodycan fire off email messages to public officials and perhaps even get a reply,and this provides an illusion of access. But the limited resource will still be scarce: the attention of thoseofficials. By necessity, only a few messages will get through.  Replies are canned, like answeringmachines.  If anything, the greater floodof messages will make gatekeepers more important than ever: power brokers thatcan provide access to the official. As demand increases while the supply isstatic, the price of access goes up, as does the commission to the middle-man.This does not help the democratic process. 

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US"> 

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">Indeed, publicopinion can be manufactured.  Emailcampaigns can substitute technology and organization for people.  Instead of grass roots one can create whathas been described as “Astroturf”,. i.e. manufactured expression of publicopinion.

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US"> 

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">Ironically, themost effective means of communication (outside of a bank check) becomes thelowest in tech: the handwritten letter (Blau, 1988)

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US"> 

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">If, in thewords of a famous cartoon, on the Internet nobody knows that you are a dog,then everyone is likely to be treated as one.

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US"> 

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">•

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">                    <span Arial",«sans-serif»;mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language: EN-US">The Internet facilitates the International Manipulation of DomesticPolitics.

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US"> 

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">Cross-borderinterference in national politics becomes easier with the Internet.  Why negotiate with the US ambassador if onecan target a key Congressional chairman by an e-mail campaign, chat groupinterventions, and misinformation, and intraceable donations.  People have started to worry about computerattacks by terrorists.  They should worrymore about state-sponsored interferences into other countries’ electronicpolitics. 

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US"> 

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">Indeed, it isincreasingly difficult to conduct national politics and policies in aglobalized world, where distance and borders are less important than in thepast, even if one does not share the hyperbole of the “evaporation” of theNation State (Negroponte 1995).  Thedifficulty of societies to control their own affairs leads, inevitably, to backlashand regulatory intervention. 

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US"> 

<span Arial",«sans-serif»;mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»; mso-ansi-language:EN-US">Conclusion:

<span Arial",«sans-serif»;mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language: EN-US">

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">It is easy toromanticize the past of democracy as Athenian debates in front of an involvedcitizenry, and to believe that its return by electronic means is neigh.  A quick look to in the rear-view mirror, toradio and then TV, is sobering.  Here,too, the then new media were heralded as harbingers of a new and improvedpolitical dialogue.  But the reality ofthose media has been is one of cacophony, fragmentation, increasing cost, anddeclining value of “hard” information. 

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US"> 

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">The Internetmakes it easier to gather and assemble information, to deliberate and toexpress oneself, and to organize and coordinate action.  (Blau, 1998).

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US"> 

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">It would besimplistic to deny that the Internet can mobilize hard-to-reach groups, andthat it has unleashed much energy and creativity.  Obviously there will be some shining successstories. 

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">But it would beequally naïve to cling to the image of the early Internet — - nonprofit,cooperative, and free — - and ignore that it is becoming a commercial medium,like commercial broadcasting that replaced amateur ham radio.  Large segments of society are disenchantedwith a political system is that often unresponsive, frequently affected by campaigncontributions, and always slow.  Toremedy such flaws, various solutions have been offered and embraced.  To some it is to return to spirituality.  For others it is to reduce the role ofgovernment and hence the scope of the democratic process.  And to others, it is the hope for technical solutionlike the Internet.  Yet, it would onlylead to disappointment if the Internet would be sold as the snake oil cure forall kinds of social problems.  It simplycannot simply sustain such an expectation. Indeed if anything, the Internet will lead to less stability, morefragmentation, less ability to fashion consensus, more interest grouppluralism.  High capacity computersconnected to high-speed networks are no remedies for flaws in a politicalsystem.  There is no quick fix.  There is no silver bullet.  There is no free lunch.

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US"> 

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">The Internet isa thrilling tool. Its possibilities are enchanting, intoxicating, enriching.But liberating?  We cannot see problemsclearly if we keep on those rosy virtual glasses and think that by expressingeverything in 1 and 0 and bundling them in packets we are even an analog inchcloser to a better political system.

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US"> 

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">The Internetdoes not create a Jeffersonian democracy. It will not revive Tocqueville’s Jacksonian America.  It is not Lincoln-Douglas.  It is not Athens,<span Arial",«sans-serif»;mso-fareast-font-family: «Times New Roman»;mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language: EN-US;mso-fareast-language:RU;mso-bidi-language:AR-SA">[4]

[2]nor Appenzell.  It is less of a democracythan those low-tech places.  But, ofcourse, none of these places really existed either, except as a goal, aconcept, an inspiration.  And in thatsense, the hopes vested in the Internet are a new link in a chain of hope.  Maybe naïve, but certainly ennobling.

<span Arial",«sans-serif»;mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»; mso-ansi-language:EN-US"> 

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US"><img src="/cache/referats/14170/image001.gif" v:shapes="_x0000_i1025">

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US">

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US"><img src="/cache/referats/14170/image001.gif" v:shapes="_x0000_i1026">

<span Arial",«sans-serif»;mso-bidi-font-family: «Times New Roman»">

<span Arial",«sans-serif»;mso-bidi-font-family: «Times New Roman»">

<span Arial",«sans-serif»;mso-bidi-font-family: «Times New Roman»">

<span Arial",«sans-serif»;mso-bidi-font-family: «Times New Roman»">Может ли Интернет нанести вред демократии?

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»"><span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»">Доклад <span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»">профессора и директора по финансам иэкономике

<span Arial",«sans-serif»;mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»">Колумбийскогоинститута Эли М. Ноум

<span Arial",«sans-serif»;mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»">для

<span Arial",«sans-serif»;mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»">Высшей ШколыБизнеса в сфере телекоммуникаций и информации

<span Arial",«sans-serif»;mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»">при Колумбийскомуниверситете.

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»"><span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»">Представлен на

<span Arial",«sans-serif»;mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»">Хайнц НиксдорфКомпьютер Мьюзиэм Форум.

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»"> Падеборн, Германия

<span Arial",«sans-serif»;mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»">Май 1999

<span Arial",«sans-serif»;mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»">

<span Arial",«sans-serif»;mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»">            Когда будет написана история средствмассовой информации 20 столетия, Интернет будет рассматриваться как важнейшийвклад в их успешное развитие. На телевидение, телефон и компьютеры будутсмотреть как на его предшественников, которые превращаются в новое средствомассовой информации и вливаются в Интернет так же, как радио и кино ранеевлились в телевидение. Влияние Интернета на культуру, бизнес и политику,безусловно, будет огромным. Когда же это случится с нами? Когда Интернет намизавладеет? Ответить на этот вопрос трудно, потому что Интернет – не простонабор соединенных между собой линий и протоколов, соединяющих компьютеры,которые выполняют единую работу. Интернет – это также и некая конструкция,производимая нашим воображением, некое пространство, на которое каждыйпроецирует свои желания, страхи и фантазии.

<span Arial",«sans-serif»;mso-bidi-font-family: «Times New Roman»">            Однихпривлекают просвещение и образование. Другие ищут

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US"> <span Arial",«sans-serif»;mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»">порнографию иазартные игры. Кто-то хочет поделиться своими мыслями и найти единомышленниковдля совместных занятий. Некоторые заняты электронной коммерцией и гонятся заприбылью. Возражения и споры существуют в изобилии по большинству аспектовИнтернета. Однако когда речь заходит о влиянии Интернета на процесс развитиядемократии, все становятся единодушны<span Arial",«sans-serif»;mso-fareast-font-family:«Times New Roman»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:RU;mso-fareast-language: RU;mso-bidi-language:AR-SA">[5].Интернет – благо для демократии. Он объединяет граждан – пользователей ПК (<span Arial",«sans-serif»;mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»; mso-ansi-language:EN-US">“digital citizens” (Wired 1997)), которые <span Arial",«sans-serif»;mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»">активно участвуютв демократической жизни<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US"> (“the vibrantteledemocracy” (Etzioni, 1997))<span Arial",«sans-serif»;mso-bidi-font-family: «Times New Roman»"> Электронной Республики<span Arial",«sans-serif»;mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language: EN-US"> (“the Electronic Republic” (Grossman 1995)), <span Arial",«sans-serif»;mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»">в НациюПользователей<span Arial",«sans-serif»;mso-bidi-font-family: «Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US"> Персональных Компьютеров (“theDigital Nation” (Katz 1992))<span Arial",«sans-serif»;mso-bidi-font-family: «Times New Roman»">. Однако нет ли у этого процесса другой, невидимой стороны? Такли уж безапелляционно правы те, кто даёт такой единодушный положительный ответ?

<span Arial",«sans-serif»;mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»">            Причины, по которым считается, чтоИнтернет укрепляет демократию, включают следующее.

<span Arial",«sans-serif»;mso-fareast-font-family:Arial">1.<span Times New Roman"">   

<span Arial",«sans-serif»;mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»">Интернет снижаетбарьеры для участия в политической жизни.

<span Arial",«sans-serif»;mso-fareast-font-family:Arial">2.<span Times New Roman"">   

<span Arial",«sans-serif»;mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»">Интернет усиливаетполитический диалог.

<span Arial",«sans-serif»;mso-fareast-font-family:Arial">3.<span Times New Roman"">   

<span Arial",«sans-serif»;mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»">Он создаётсообщество единомышленников.

<span Arial",«sans-serif»;mso-fareast-font-family:Arial">4.<span Times New Roman"">   

<span Arial",«sans-serif»;mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»">Он не подконтроленправительству.

<span Arial",«sans-serif»;mso-fareast-font-family:Arial">5.<span Times New Roman"">   

<span Arial",«sans-serif»;mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»">Он расширяетучастие в выборах.

<span Arial",«sans-serif»;mso-fareast-font-family:Arial">6.<span Times New Roman"">   

<span Arial",«sans-serif»;mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»">Он позволяет болеетесные контакты с властями.

<span Arial",«sans-serif»;mso-fareast-font-family:Arial">7.<span Times New Roman"">   

<span Arial",«sans-serif»;mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»">Он способствуетповсеместному распространению демократии.

<span Arial",«sans-serif»;mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»">Каждоеиз приведенных утверждений в этом утопическом популизме представляется спорным,но все они крепко сидят в головах поколения, формировавшегося под влияниемИнтернета и индустрии, которая использует сейчас Интернет, академиками

<span Arial",«sans-serif»;mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»; mso-ansi-language:EN-US"> (<span Arial",«sans-serif»;mso-bidi-font-family: «Times New Roman»">от<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US"> Negroponte(1995) до Dahl (1989))<span Arial",«sans-serif»;mso-bidi-font-family: «Times New Roman»">, восторженными средствами массовой информации ипротивостоящими друг другу группами политиков от демократов до республиканцев иот консерваторов до лейбористов. 

<span Arial",«sans-serif»;mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»">Я же,напротив, приведу убедительные аргументы, что Интернет не только далёк отпомощи демократии, но и является угрозой для неё. И моя точка зрения – этовзгляд заинтересованного человека, а не холодного критика. Именно потому, чтоИнтернет обладает мощью и революционным потенциалом, он влияет на традиционныеинституты демократии и даже разрушает их.

<span Arial",«sans-serif»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:EN-US"> <span Arial",«sans-serif»;mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»">Отрицать этупотенциальную возможность означает вдохновить заговор молчания в то время,когда игнорируемые проблемы выходят на всеобщее обозрение и становятся объектомвнимания<span Arial",«sans-serif»;mso-fareast-font-family:«Times New Roman»; mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»;mso-ansi-language:RU;mso-fareast-language: RU;mso-bidi-language:AR-SA">[6].

<span Arial",«sans-serif»;mso-bidi-font-family:«Times New Roman»">Мойвзгляд отличается от аргументов неомарксистов против тотального контролякрупного бизнеса, от точки зрения неолуддитов на примитивные технологии как наблаго и  от  опасений реформистов, что появится лишенныйправа политического голоса подкласс пользователей ПК. Последнее воззрение сталов особенности распространённым. Несмотря на это, положительным является то, чтооснованное на неравенстве в доходах неравенство в использовании Интернета будетсокращаться в развитых странах. Обработка и пересылка информации становятсядешевле и будут доступны повсюду. Передача информации будет дешёвой и даст намвозможность соединяться везде. А простейшее устаревшее оборудование будет почтиповсеместно заменяться на условиях долгосрочных контрактов и под воздействиемрекламы.

Вот почему то, что мы называем сейчас простейшимподключением к Интернету, не будет проблемой. К Интернету, как и к электросети,будут подключены почти 100% частных домовладений и  офисов. Ведь Интернет, как способ соединенияперсонального компьютера с другими компьютерами, будет свободен от утомляющейограниченности отдельного ПК, столь же недружелюбного к своему пользователю,как одноколесный велосипед.

В настоящее время более половины коммуникационногообмена представлено в виде данных, а не в голосовом формате. Это означает, чтокоммуникационный обмен осуществляется в первую очередь при помощи быстрыхмашин, а не медлительных людей. Такие машины будут повсюду. Автомобили будутобщаться с автострадами, от чемоданов будут поступать жалобы авиакомпаниям,электронные книги будут загружаться от издателей, от входных дверей в полициюбудут поступать сообщения об их движениях, электрокардиостимуляторы будут вестидиалог с больницами, телевизоры сами будут подключаться к видеосерверам.

По этой причине мой скептицизм по поводу Интернетакак продемократической  силы базируетсяне на его неравномерном распространении. Мои сомнения в большей степенисистемны. Проблема состоит в том, что большинство аналитиков совершают такназываемую структурную ошибку, смешивая микропоступки с макрорезультатами. Онисчитают, что если что-либо полезно какому-либо отдельному человеку, обществувообще также полезно, когда этим пользуются все.

Полагаю, мы могли бы спросить сто лет назад,понизит ли автомобиль загрязнение окружающей среды. Ответ был бы прост иположителен: нет лошадей, нет отбросов на дорогах, нет запаха, нетнеобходимости занимать сельскохозяйственные угодья овсом. Но сейчас мыпонимаем, что в совокупности масс

еще рефераты
Еще работы по культурологии. иностранным языкам